We develop and apply methods that link climate change models, ecological niche (species distribution or habitat suitability) models, and demographic models to predict the extinction risk of species under global climate change.
The development of this coupled niche-population modeling approach built on our previous work in several stages:
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Akçakaya*, H.R., S.H.M. Butchart, J.E.M. Watson, R.G. Pearson. 2014. Preventing species extinctions resulting from climate change. Nature Climate Change 4:1048-1049.
We review recent studies that show that current IUCN Red List assessment methods can identify species vulnerable to extinction because of climate change. Focusing on the implications of these findings for conservation policy and future research, we emphasize that for effective |
Fordham, et al. 2016. Predicting and mitigating future biodiversity loss using long-term ecological proxies. Nature Climate Change 6:909-916
Fordham, et al. 2022. Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation. Ecology Letters. These paperw presents an approach that combines coupled niche-demographic models with recent advances in geochronological dating, palaeoclimate reconstructions and molecular techniques for retrospective modeling. These long-term retrospective analyses will improve efforts to predict the likely effects of future climate and other environmental change on biodiversity, and target conservation management resources most effectively. |
Fordham, D.A., H.R. Akçakaya, B.W. Brook, A. Rodríguez, P.C. Alves, E. Civantos, M. Triviño, M.J. Watts and M.B. Araújo. 2013. Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate. Nature Climate Change 3:899-903. doi:10.1038/nclimate1954.
This paper focuses on impact of climate change on the world's most endangered cat, and shows that the species may go extinct within 50 years unless conservation plans (such as translocations, or assisted migration) are changed to take climate change into account. |
Fordham, D.A., H.R. Akçakaya, M. Araújo, D. Keith, B.W. Brook. 2013. Tools for integrating range change, extinction risk and climate change information into conservation management. Ecography 36:956-964.
This paper synthesizes findings from published plant and animal case studies to highlight advantages of linking ecological nich models with demographic modeling approaches. |